Does Bitcoin Really Follow the M2 Money Supply, or Has the Correlation Broken Down?
Direct answer
Bitcoin vs M2 money supply: what the data show
Only loosely. Since 2015 both US M2 and Bitcoin went up, so their price levels look tightly linked (a 0.93 correlation of the log levels), but that is mostly two rising trends. When you compare what actually matters for timing, the 12-month change in each, the correlation from December 2015 to September 2026 is just 0.18 on FRED data, and since 2024 it has been −0.71: M2 kept growing about 4–6% a year while Bitcoin swung from +123% to −30%. Liquidity is one input among many, not a price map.
- Log price levels, 2015–2026: correlation 0.93 (both trend up)
- 12-month % changes, Dec 2015–Sep 2026: correlation 0.18
- Same window, 2024–Sep 2026: −0.71
- US M2 fell 4.9% from March 2022 to October 2023, its only year-on-year decline in FRED data since 1959
- September 2026: M2 $23.41 trillion (+5.7% y/y), Bitcoin month-end $83,483 (−29.6% y/y)
The "Bitcoin follows the money printer" chart is everywhere in crypto. On official data the link is real over a decade but weak for timing.
What people on X are asking
In September 2026 one user asked directly whether there is any correlation: M2 had grown by about $7.85 trillion since the pandemic, roughly 6.5% a year, so what had Bitcoin done over the same stretch? A few weeks earlier a widely followed crypto account predicted that "The M2 money supply chart and Bitcoin price WILL go up at the same time again", and that people would then announce the correlation was back. In August 2026 another post argued the Bitcoin–global-M2 relationship had weakened sharply this year, citing a fall in correlation from about 0.85 to 0.59; that figure uses a private global M2 series and we could not reproduce it, so treat it as the poster's own estimate.
What people in the thread said
- @pantsdept replied that money supply matters somewhat, but far less than many crypto commentators think, and that watching Bitcoin itself is more useful. Our numbers below support the first half: the year-on-year link is weak.
- @VPA_KSH put the mechanism simply: more cheap liquidity tends to mean more appetite for risk. That is a reasonable channel, but it works through interest rates, credit and sentiment as well as the M2 total, which is why M2 alone explains little.
These are community comments, summarised in our words; the data and sources below come first.
The fact-checked answer
Checking the first post. On FRED's M2SL series, US M2 rose from $15.49 trillion in February 2020 to $23.30 trillion in August 2026, an increase of $7.81 trillion, or 6.5% a year compounded. The post's figures are right. Over the same months Bitcoin's month-end price on Coinbase went from $8,552 to $78,603, about 9.2 times. So yes, both rose, but Bitcoin's 41% a year was not "explained" by 6.5% money growth.
Levels versus changes. Any two rising series show a high correlation of levels. For timing questions, the useful test compares growth rates. We lined up month-end Bitcoin prices with monthly M2 for every month from December 2014 to September 2026.
UXS chart
Bitcoin vs US M2 money supply since 2015 (rebased, January 2015 = 100, log scale)
Bitcoin (Coinbase, USD): latest
25,984
November 9, 2026
US M2 money stock: latest
198.32
September 1, 2026
Year by year: Bitcoin (Coinbase, USD)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 9, 2026).
| 2026* | 25,984 | -14.4% | 33,514 | 20,273 | 198.32 |
| 2025 | 30,346 | -7.1% | 43,157 | 26,386 | 189.13 |
| 2024 | 32,660 | +123.1% | 36,727 | 13,685 | 181.79 |
| 2023 | 14,637 | +155.9% | 15,303 | 5,749.40 | 175.79 |
| 2022 | 5,720.27 | -64.3% | 16,523 | 5,452.01 | 180.18 |
| 2021 | 16,002 | +59.3% | 23,361 | 10,170 | 182.01 |
How closely Bitcoin and US M2 moved together, by period
Pearson correlations computed by UXS from FRED M2SL (seasonally adjusted, monthly) and CBBTCUSD (daily, month-end value). 1.0 = move together perfectly, 0 = no linear link, −1 = opposite. Tap a column header to sort.
| Log price levels | Dec 2014 – Sep 2026 | 0.93 |
| 12-month % change, same month | Dec 2015 – Sep 2026 | 0.18 |
| Monthly % change | Jan 2015 – Sep 2026 | 0.09 |
| 12-month change, M2 leading by 6 months | Jun 2016 – Sep 2026 | 0.25 |
| 12-month change, M2 leading by 12 months | Dec 2016 – Sep 2026 | 0.10 |
| 12-month change | 2016 – 2019 | −0.09 |
| 12-month change | 2020 – 2021 | 0.06 |
| 12-month change | 2022 – 2023 | −0.31 |
| 12-month change | 2024 – Sep 2026 | −0.71 |
Where the story came from. The 2020–2021 episode is the source of the chart's fame: M2 grew a record 26.8% year on year in February 2021, and Bitcoin rose more than 800% in the year to March 2021. Then M2 shrank 4.9% between March 2022 and October 2023, the only period of year-on-year decline in FRED's monthly data since 1959, while Bitcoin fell about 70% in the year to November 2022. Those two big swings line up. Most other years do not.
Year by year: Bitcoin vs US M2, December to December
Computed by UXS from FRED month-end Bitcoin (CBBTCUSD) and monthly M2SL. 2023 is the clearest counter-example: M2 shrank and Bitcoin more than doubled. Tap a column header to sort.
| 2016 | +126.2% | +6.8% |
| 2017 | +1,324.2% | +4.9% |
| 2018 | −73.4% | +3.6% |
| 2019 | +93.9% | +6.7% |
| 2020 | +305.5% | +24.5% |
| 2021 | +59.3% | +12.4% |
| 2022 | −64.3% | −1.0% |
| 2023 | +155.9% | −2.4% |
| 2024 | +123.1% | +3.4% |
| 2025 | −7.1% | +4.0% |
| Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 | −29.6% | +5.7% |
What else moves Bitcoin. Interest rates matter at least as much: the effective federal funds rate (FRED FEDFUNDS) rose from near zero in early 2022 to above 5% in 2023, which hit all risk assets at once. ETF flows, the halving cycle, futures leverage and exchange failures add moves unrelated to M2. Our page on whether Bitcoin is correlated with the Nasdaq shows that equities explain more of Bitcoin's short-term moves than money supply does.
US versus "global" M2. Many charts on X use a global M2 figure built by private data providers from several central banks and converted into dollars. That makes it sensitive to the dollar exchange rate: a weaker dollar raises global M2 in dollar terms and often helps Bitcoin too, which inflates the apparent link. The Federal Reserve's H.6 release publishes only US money stock, so US M2 is the measure anyone can check.
Decision helper
| If you see… | Ask |
|---|---|
| Two lines on one chart that "match" | Are these levels or growth rates? Is one axis shifted in time? |
| A lead of 10–12 weeks or months | Was the lag picked after the fact to fit? |
| "Global M2" | Who compiles it, and how much is just the dollar moving? |
Checklist
- Compare 12-month changes, not price levels.
- Check the claim over several sub-periods, including 2022–2023.
- Note the data source and whether it is US or a private global series.
- Add rates and the dollar before blaming or crediting M2.
- Size crypto positions for −70% years whatever liquidity does; see how much of a portfolio to put in crypto.
Common mistakes
- Treating a shared uptrend as proof of cause.
- Shifting one line by a few months until the chart fits.
- Ignoring the 2023 case, when M2 fell and Bitcoin rose 156%.
For how Bitcoin's swings compare with other assets, see how volatile Bitcoin is compared with stocks and gold, and for its biggest falls, why crypto crashes so hard.
FAQ
Is Bitcoin correlated with M2?
Over the long run both rose, so price levels correlate at 0.93. Year-on-year changes correlate at only 0.18 from 2015 to 2026.
Has the Bitcoin–M2 correlation broken?
On US data the 12-month correlation was −0.71 from 2024 to September 2026: M2 grew steadily while Bitcoin rose, then fell.
Does M2 lead Bitcoin by a few months?
Shifting M2 by 6 months raises the correlation only to 0.25, and by 12 months it drops to 0.10.
What was US M2 most recently?
$23.41 trillion in September 2026, up 5.7% from a year earlier (FRED M2SL).
Why do charts of global M2 look closer to Bitcoin?
They are converted into US dollars, so dollar moves that also affect Bitcoin are built in.
Should I buy Bitcoin when M2 rises?
M2 alone has not been a reliable timing signal; treat it as background, not a trigger.
Sources
- FRED: M2 money stock (M2SL)
- FRED: Coinbase Bitcoin (CBBTCUSD)
- Federal Reserve: H.6 Money Stock Measures
- FRED: Effective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS)
Facts checked November 11, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.