How Volatile Is Bitcoin Compared With the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and Gold?

"Bitcoin is maturing" has become a common line, and some posts go further and say it is now calmer than stocks or gold. Volatility is measurable, so we measured it.

What people on X are asking

In December 2025 an exchange's account posted a "plot twist" that the stock market was now more volatile than BTC, comparing bitcoin's 2025 price range with Nvidia's. In September 2025 a user shared a claim attributed to River that bitcoin is now less volatile than gold, on a 60-day measure, and asked what the implications were. In April 2026 another simply asked why BTC was so volatile that day. The answer depends heavily on how and over what period you measure.

The fact-checked answer

UXS chart

Rolling 30-day volatility, annualised: bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Nasdaq-100

Bitcoin: latest

29.04%

November 8, 2026

S&P 500: latest

11.23%

November 4, 2026

Nasdaq-100: latest

27.25%

November 6, 2026

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED CBBTCUSD · FRED NASDAQ100 · FRED SP500). Retrieved November 10, 2026. Chart computed and drawn by UXS from the raw series. Standard deviation of daily log returns over 30 observations × √252. Bitcoin trades every day, so its 30 observations cover about a month while stocks cover about six weeks; using √365 for bitcoin would raise its figure by about 20%. Download the data (CSV)

Year by year: Bitcoin

Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 8, 2026).

Year	Bitcoin: last value	Change vs prior year	Year high	Year low	S&P 500: last value	Nasdaq-100: last value
2026*	29.04%	+1.47 pts	61.74%	17.37%	11.23%	27.25%
2025	27.57%	-9.00 pts	59.14%	17.46%	11.02%	16.17%
2024	36.56%	-0.00 pts	67.59%	20.55%	12.39%	17.28%
2023	36.56%	+13.45 pts	56.79%	14.27%	8.11%	10.46%
2022	23.11%	-28.44 pts	79.45%	22.06%	18.62%	24.62%
2021	51.56%	+0.64 pts	97.24%	42.53%	17.36%	22.98%
2020	50.92%	+8.22 pts	163.29%	18.77%	9.77%	11.17%
2019	42.70%	-30.51 pts	108.85%	19.16%	6.96%	8.82%
2018	73.21%	-51.37 pts	127.17%	15.90%	26.26%	33.88%
2017	124.58%	–	125.43%	23.54%	6.29%	10.29%

The long-run picture. Averaging daily moves by calendar year, bitcoin's annualised volatility was about 89% in 2017, about 80% in 2018 and 79% in 2020, then fell to around 47% in 2023 and about 39–42% in 2025–26 on the same trading-day basis. The S&P 500's volatility was about 7% in calm 2017, 35% in 2020 and about 14% in 2026; the Nasdaq-100's ranged from 10% to 37%. So bitcoin has calmed down a lot, but in a typical recent year it is still roughly two to three times as volatile as the S&P 500 and about twice as volatile as the Nasdaq-100.

Annualised volatility by year (daily returns, UXS calculation)

Bitcoin √252 column uses only days when US stocks traded; √365 uses every day. GVZ is Cboe's implied (expected) volatility from gold ETF options, not realised volatility, so compare it with care. Sources: FRED CBBTCUSD, SP500, NASDAQ100, GVZCLS. Tap a column header to sort.

Year	Bitcoin (√252)	Bitcoin (√365)	S&P 500	Nasdaq-100	Gold volatility index GVZ (avg)
2017	89%	93%	7%	10%	12.4
2018	80%	84%	17%	23%	11.8
2020	79%	79%	35%	37%	21.5
2022	66%	64%	24%	32%	18.3
2023	47%	44%	13%	18%	14.9
2024	56%	53%	13%	18%	16.0
2025	39%	42%	19%	23%	19.5
2026 (to Nov)	42%	42%	14%	22%	28.0

What about gold? Our data set does not include a daily gold price, so we use Cboe's gold volatility index (GVZ), which measures the volatility priced into options on a gold ETF. It averaged about 12 in 2017–19 and about 28 in 2026, with a peak above 46 in January 2026 during gold's surge. That makes gold in 2026 more volatile than the S&P 500 by this measure, and closer to bitcoin than usual. A 60-day window in which bitcoin is calm and gold is wild can therefore produce the headline "bitcoin less volatile than gold", but our yearly numbers show it is not the normal state.

Why window choice matters. Volatility clusters: calm weeks follow calm weeks and stormy weeks follow stormy weeks. Comparing bitcoin's price range with one single stock, as in the December 2025 post, also stacks the deck, because individual stocks are far more volatile than an index. A fair comparison uses the same method, the same dates and a broad index.

Why bitcoin is still volatile. It has no earnings, a large share of trading is leveraged, and it trades around the clock including weekends when liquidity is thin. Those factors explain the deep crashes as well as the day-to-day swings. For how the measure itself works, see what historical volatility is.

What it means for position size

If bitcoin's volatility is about three times the S&P 500's, then a position one-third the size has roughly similar day-to-day risk. That is a rough guide only: crash risk is larger than normal volatility suggests. See how much of my portfolio should be in crypto.

Return per unit of volatility is measured by the Sharpe ratio.

Decision helper

Common mistakes

• Comparing bitcoin with a single stock instead of an index.
• Mixing implied and realised volatility without saying so.
• Using √365 for bitcoin and √252 for stocks, or the reverse, without noting it.
• Treating a calm month as a permanent change.

FAQ

Is bitcoin more volatile than stocks?

Yes, on average: about 42% annualised in 2026 versus about 14% for the S&P 500.

Has bitcoin become less volatile?

Yes. Its volatility has roughly halved since 2017–18.

Is bitcoin less volatile than gold?

Sometimes over short windows, especially when gold is surging, but not on a typical multi-year basis.

How is volatility measured?

Usually as the standard deviation of daily returns, scaled to a year.

Why does bitcoin swing so much in one day?

Leverage, liquidations, thin weekend liquidity and news-driven trading.

Does lower volatility mean bitcoin is safer?

It means smaller typical moves, but crashes of 50% or more have still happened recently.