Which Month Has Historically Been the Best and Worst for Bitcoin Returns?
Direct answer
Bitcoin returns by calendar month
On Coinbase daily closes from January 2015 to October 2026, October has been bitcoin's best month on average (+16.9%, positive in 9 of 12 years), followed by February (+10.6%) and April (+10.3%). The weakest were September (−1.2%), January (−1.7%) and June (−0.3%). But each month has only 11–12 observations, the spread inside every month is huge (October ranged from +48.5% to −7.3%), and two of the last two Octobers fell. Seasonality is a weak tendency, not a forecast.
- Data: Coinbase BTC-USD closes, Jan 2015–Oct 2026, 11–12 years per month
- Best average: October +16.9% (9 of 12 up), February +10.6%, April +10.3%
- Weakest: January −1.7%, September −1.2%, June −0.3%
- October fell in both 2025 and 2026 (about −7.3% each)
- Popular "Uptober" figures include 2013, when bitcoin was tiny
Every autumn the same claim appears: October is bitcoin's month, November is better still, and summer is dead. We checked it against nearly twelve years of daily closing prices, month by month.
What people on X are asking
On October 31, 2025 one account asked whether "Uptober" was busted in 2025, quoting an October average of +26.98% for 2010–2024 and a 2025 October of −6.84%. The next day another post called October 2025 one of the worst Uptobers ever at −3.7% and said November had historically averaged 42%. In February 2025 a trader claimed February is bitcoin's second-best month after October. Here is what a consistent data set says.
The fact-checked answer
The data. We used the Coinbase BTC-USD daily close published by FRED, which starts in December 2014. A month's return is the last close of the month divided by the last close of the month before. That gives twelve Januarys to Octobers (2015–2026) and eleven Novembers and Decembers (2015–2025). November 2026 is not finished, so it is excluded.
UXS chart
Bitcoin price since 2015 (log scale, USD)
Bitcoin (Coinbase close): latest
$75,091
November 9, 2026
Highest in chart period
$124,720
October 5, 2025
Lowest in chart period
$120.00
January 14, 2015
Change over 1 year
-29.5%
vs November 9, 2025
Year by year: Bitcoin (Coinbase close)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 9, 2026).
| 2026* | $75,091 | -14.4% | $96,853 | $58,586 |
| 2025 | $87,696 | -7.1% | $124,720 | $76,252 |
| 2024 | $94,384 | +123.1% | $106,137 | $39,548 |
| 2023 | $42,301 | +155.9% | $44,224 | $16,615 |
| 2022 | $16,531 | -64.3% | $47,749 | $15,756 |
| 2021 | $46,245 | +59.3% | $67,510 | $29,391 |
Bitcoin return by calendar month, 2015–2026 (complete months only)
UXS calculation from month-end Coinbase closes. Returns are price only, before fees. November and December 2026 are not yet complete. Tap a column header to sort.
| January | 12 | −1.7% | −4.0% | 5 | +39.9% (2023) | −35.8% (2015) |
| February | 12 | +10.6% | +11.8% | 9 | +43.8% (2024) | −15.3% (2026) |
| March | 12 | +0.7% | +0.6% | 6 | +29.7% (2021) | −32.8% (2018) |
| April | 12 | +10.3% | +10.7% | 8 | +34.5% (2020) | −17.2% (2022) |
| May | 12 | +7.7% | +3.1% | 6 | +66.4% (2017) | −35.5% (2021) |
| June | 12 | −0.3% | −1.6% | 6 | +26.8% (2016) | −37.6% (2022) |
| July | 12 | +8.9% | +7.7% | 9 | +24.6% (2020) | −6.9% (2016) |
| August | 12 | +2.3% | −6.8% | 4 | +66.1% (2017) | −19.1% (2015) |
| September | 12 | −1.2% | −0.1% | 6 | +8.6% (2025) | −13.4% (2019) |
| October | 12 | +16.9% | +14.4% | 9 | +48.5% (2017) | −7.3% (2026) |
| November | 11 | +6.7% | +6.6% | 6 | +53.7% (2017) | −36.9% (2018) |
| December | 11 | +9.7% | +0.3% | 6 | +47.1% (2020) | −18.7% (2021) |
What it shows.
- October really has been strong: the highest average and median, and up in 9 of 12 years. But both of the last two Octobers fell (about −7.3% in 2025 and again in 2026 on these closes).
- February and April come next on average, which partly supports the February claim, though July has the same number of up years as February.
- January, June and September averaged slightly negative. September's worst was only −13.4%, so it is weak but not the crash month it is often called.
- August shows why averages mislead: its average is positive only because of one +66% month in 2017; the median August fell 6.8%.
Why other numbers look bigger. Posts quoting a 42% November average or a 27% October average usually include 2010–2014, when bitcoin was a tiny market and single months could gain several hundred percent (November 2013 is the famous one). Starting in 2015, on one exchange's daily close, gives smaller and more comparable numbers. Exchanges also close their day at different times, so a single month can differ by a few percentage points between sources: our October 2025 is −7.3%, the post above says −6.84%, the other −3.7%.
Is seasonality tradable? With 11 or 12 observations per month and monthly swings of ±30% or more, almost none of these differences are statistically meaningful. One strong year moves an average by several points. Calendar effects can also disappear once they are widely known. Bitcoin's bigger driver has been its multi-year cycle; see does the halving affect price and why crypto falls 50–80%.
What helps more than the calendar. If you are buying for the long term, spreading purchases out removes the need to pick a month; see does dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin work. If you trade, size each trade for bitcoin's normal volatility, not for a seasonal story; see how volatile bitcoin is compared with stocks and gold. Stocks have their own calendar myths: see is September really the worst month for stocks.
Quick poll
Do you change your bitcoin buying based on the month?
What each answer means
- Yes, I buy more before October: October has the best average here, but the last two Octobers both fell.
- I avoid buying in September: September averaged −1.2%: weak, but with a smaller worst case than most months.
- No, I buy on a fixed schedule: A schedule removes calendar guesswork; costs and taxes still matter.
- I don't buy bitcoin: Fine: the data here describe bitcoin only, not other crypto.
Your answer is stored only in this browser (localStorage). UXS does not collect, count or publish votes, so no totals are shown.
Decision helper
| If you think… | The data say |
|---|---|
| "October always goes up" | 9 of 12 years; 2025 and 2026 fell |
| "November averages 40%" | +6.7% since 2015; big figures include 2013 |
| "Summer is dead" | July averaged +8.9%; June −0.3% |
| "I should wait for September" | Average −1.2%; not reliably cheaper |
Common mistakes
- Treating an average of 12 numbers as a forecast.
- Quoting averages that include 2010–2014 without saying so.
- Ignoring the median, which can tell a different story (August).
- Raising position size because "it's the good month".
FAQ
What is the best month for bitcoin historically?
On Coinbase closes from 2015 to 2026, October: +16.9% on average and up in 9 of 12 years.
What is the worst month for bitcoin?
January (−1.7% average) and September (−1.2%) are the weakest; June averaged −0.3%.
Is "Uptober" real?
October has been strong on average, but it fell in both 2025 and 2026, so it is not reliable.
Why do different sites show different monthly returns?
They use different start years, exchanges and daily closing times.
Does seasonality work for altcoins too?
This table covers bitcoin only; altcoins are more volatile and have shorter histories.
Should I time my purchases by month?
The evidence is weak; a fixed schedule avoids guessing and has a long record of use.
Sources
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.