Is Bitcoin Correlated With the Nasdaq?

Bitcoin was once pitched as an asset that ignores the stock market. Whether that is still true matters for anyone who holds both, because two assets that fall together do not diversify each other.

What people on X are asking

In November 2026 one post said bitcoin was trading like a tech stock again, citing a 30-day correlation figure from an analytics firm. The poster's number is their claim, which we did not check; we computed our own below. In September another user asked when crypto started trading like a tech stock on steroids after a bond-yield jump, and in February a third flipped the question around and asked whether tech stocks were trading like bitcoin.

The fact-checked answer

How we measured it. We took Coinbase daily bitcoin closes and Nasdaq Composite closes from FRED, kept only days when both had a price, and computed the Pearson correlation of daily percentage changes. A value of +1 means the two always move in the same direction in proportion; 0 means no linear relationship; −1 means opposite moves.

UXS chart

Rolling 90-day correlation of daily returns: bitcoin vs Nasdaq Composite

90-day correlation: latest

0.50

November 5, 2026

Highest in chart period

0.67

May 12, 2022

Lowest in chart period

-0.32

August 8, 2019

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED CBBTCUSD · FRED NASDAQCOM). Retrieved November 10, 2026. Chart computed and drawn by UXS from the raw series. Each point uses the previous 90 shared trading days. Values above 0.5 mean a fairly strong same-direction link. Download the data (CSV)

Year by year: 90-day correlation

Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 5, 2026).

Year	90-day correlation: last value	Change vs prior year	Year high	Year low
2026*	0.50	+0.22 pts	0.58	0.30
2025	0.28	+0.06 pts	0.28	-0.27
2024	0.22	+0.15 pts	0.46	-0.01
2023	0.07	-0.52 pts	0.58	0.07
2022	0.59	+0.26 pts	0.67	0.34
2021	0.34	+0.08 pts	0.34	0.13
2020	0.26	+0.21 pts	0.56	-0.02
2019	0.05	-0.02 pts	0.13	-0.32
2018	0.07	-0.03 pts	0.25	-0.15
2017	0.10	+0.21 pts	0.17	-0.14
2016	-0.11	–	0.15	-0.14

Bitcoin vs Nasdaq Composite: correlation of daily returns by calendar year

Computed by UXS from FRED CBBTCUSD and NASDAQCOM daily closes. Tap a column header to sort.

Year	Correlation	Shared trading days	Reading
2016	−0.01	252	No link
2017	0.06	251	No link
2018	0.07	251	No link
2019	−0.10	253	No link
2020	0.43	252	Moderate
2021	0.27	252	Weak
2022	0.60	251	Fairly strong
2023	0.19	250	Weak
2024	0.26	252	Weak
2025	−0.01	250	No link
2026 (to Nov 9)	0.46	215	Moderate

What changed in 2020. The jump coincides with the March 2020 crash, when almost every risk asset was sold at once, and with the period when more institutions and listed companies started holding bitcoin. The IMF wrote in January 2022 that crypto and equity prices had become much more synchronised since the pandemic, raising the risk of spillovers.

2022 was the high point. As the Federal Reserve raised rates quickly, both bitcoin and growth stocks fell hard and on the same days. A correlation of 0.60 for a full year is high for two very different assets.

It is not permanent. In 2025 the yearly figure was about zero even though bitcoin and the Nasdaq both had big moves, because the moves often happened on different days. In 2026 the link came back. Correlation is a summary of a period, not a fixed property.

Correlation is not the whole risk. Even at 0.5, bitcoin's daily moves are much larger than the index's. A day when the Nasdaq falls 2% can see bitcoin fall far more. Our bitcoin price history shows the size of those swings, and why the halving gets so much attention explains one of the narratives behind them.

Correlation is only half the picture; see how volatile Bitcoin is compared with stocks and gold.

Correlation and beta answer different questions; see what a high beta means and how to find it.

"The Nasdaq" can mean two indices; see the Composite vs the Nasdaq-100.

Money supply is the other macro link people cite; our data check asks whether Bitcoin really follows the M2 money supply.

Decision helper

Checklist for using correlation sensibly

1. Check the period: one year, 90 days and 30 days can tell different stories.
2. Use returns, not price levels; two rising lines always look "correlated".
3. Look at stress periods separately, because that is when diversification matters.
4. Combine correlation with volatility to judge the real risk.
5. Re-check every few months; the relationship has shifted several times.

Common mistakes

• Using a single 30-day number to describe the whole relationship.
• Confusing correlation with causation: both may be reacting to interest rates or liquidity.
• Assuming low correlation means low risk.
• Forgetting that bitcoin trades on weekends while stocks do not; weekend moves are absorbed into Monday's comparison.

FAQ

Is bitcoin correlated with the S&P 500 too?

Usually in a similar way, because the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq move together much of the time. Our calculation here uses the Nasdaq Composite.

Why does bitcoin follow tech stocks?

Both are sensitive to interest rates and investor risk appetite, and many of the same investors hold both. That is an explanation, not a proven cause.

Does high correlation mean bitcoin will fall if stocks fall?

It raises the odds of moving in the same direction on a given day, but the link changes and it does not say by how much.

What correlation did we find for 2026?

0.46 for daily returns from January 1 to November 9, 2026, and 0.49 for the 90 trading days to November 9.

Is bitcoin still a diversifier?

In some years, such as 2025, the daily link was near zero. In stress years such as 2022 it was strong. Do not count on it.

Can correlation be negative?

Yes. A negative value means the two tended to move in opposite directions over the period; bitcoin and the Nasdaq had slightly negative readings in 2019 and 2025.