How Do Traders Know When Altcoin Season Has Actually Started?
Direct answer
Altcoin season checks
There is no official start date, so traders use rules of thumb that measure altcoins against bitcoin, not against the dollar. The most quoted is BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index, which declares altcoin season when 75% of the top 50 coins (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) outperformed bitcoin over the past 90 days; it read 33, "not altcoin season", when we checked on November 10, 2026. Other checks are a falling bitcoin dominance and a rising ETH/BTC ratio. In FRED's Coinbase data ETH/BTC was about 0.028 on November 9, 2026, below its 2021 high near 0.088. Seasons have tended to be short and are clear mostly in hindsight.
- Index rule: 75% of top 50 coins beat BTC over 90 days
- Reading on Nov 10, 2026: 33, not altcoin season
- Average season length on that index: 17 days, longest 117
- ETH/BTC about 0.028 (Nov 9, 2026) vs 0.088 peak in Dec 2021
- Signals are relative to bitcoin, so alts can rise in dollars without a season
"Altseason is coming" is one of the most repeated lines in crypto. It is also one of the hardest to pin down, because it is a comparison, not a price level. Altcoins can rise in dollars for months while still losing to bitcoin.
What people on X are asking
In April 2026 one trader asked whether alt season was still in waiting mode, citing bitcoin dominance around 58–59% and an Altcoin Season Index stuck around 40–55. Ten days later another account reported that ETH gained 1.9% against bitcoin's 2.6%, with dominance at 59.19% and the index at 36, and concluded no altcoin season signal was firing. Back in December 2024 a third post claimed alt season was coming because dominance, the index and ETH were starting to align. The checks below show why that alignment is rarer than it sounds.
The fact-checked answer
The most-quoted definition. BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index looks at the top 50 coins, excluding stablecoins such as Tether and DAI and asset-backed tokens such as wrapped bitcoin or staked ether. If 75% of them performed better than bitcoin over the last 90 days, it is altcoin season. The site reports a score from 0 to 100; when we checked it on November 10, 2026 it read 33 and said "It is not Altcoin Season!" Its statistics panel put the average altcoin season at 17 days, the longest at 117 days, and the total at 416 altcoin-season days against 956 bitcoin-season days.
Why 90 days and 75%? They are judgment calls. A shorter window flips more often; a lower threshold calls seasons sooner. Because the rule is relative, a market where everything falls can still count as altcoin season if alts fall less than bitcoin.
Signal 2: the ETH/BTC ratio. Ether is the largest altcoin, so its price in bitcoin is a simple gauge. Computed from FRED's Coinbase prices:
UXS chart
ETH/BTC ratio since 2017 (ether price in bitcoin)
ETH/BTC (Coinbase daily): latest
0.0283
November 9, 2026
Highest in chart period
0.1496
June 12, 2017
Lowest in chart period
0.0082
January 1, 2017
Change over 1 year
-17.1%
vs November 9, 2025
Year by year: ETH/BTC (Coinbase daily)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 9, 2026).
| 2026* | 0.0283 | -16.5% | 0.0352 | 0.0258 |
| 2025 | 0.0339 | -4.5% | 0.0421 | 0.0180 |
| 2024 | 0.0355 | -34.1% | 0.0602 | 0.0325 |
| 2023 | 0.0539 | -25.4% | 0.0774 | 0.0504 |
| 2022 | 0.0723 | -9.2% | 0.0846 | 0.0524 |
| 2021 | 0.0797 | +212.9% | 0.0879 | 0.0241 |
| 2020 | 0.0255 | +41.9% | 0.0400 | 0.0175 |
| 2019 | 0.0179 | -49.3% | 0.0406 | 0.0164 |
| 2018 | 0.0354 | -33.9% | 0.1129 | 0.0259 |
| 2017 | 0.0535 | – | 0.1496 | 0.0082 |
The ratio peaked near 0.15 in June 2017 and near 0.088 in December 2021, both periods remembered as altcoin manias. On November 9, 2026 it was about 0.028, with BTC near $75,100 and ETH near $2,128. Over the 90 days to that date, ETH did about 5 percentage points worse than BTC. Across all days in the data, ETH beat BTC over a 90-day window only about 42% of the time.
Signal 3: bitcoin dominance. Dominance is bitcoin's share of total crypto market value. A falling share with rising prices is the classic altseason backdrop; a falling share in a crash is not. Our page on bitcoin dominance rising while altcoins fall explains how stablecoin growth can distort it.
Altcoin season checklist (status on November 9–10, 2026)
Index from BlockchainCenter; ETH/BTC from FRED Coinbase data. Dominance figures are from the X posts above and depend on which coins a site counts. Tap a column header to sort.
| Altcoin Season Index | 75 or above | 33 | No |
| ETH vs BTC, last 90 days | ETH ahead | About 5 points behind | No |
| ETH/BTC ratio | Rising toward prior highs | About 0.028, well below 0.088 (2021) | No |
| Bitcoin dominance | Falling while prices rise | Around 58–59% in spring 2026 posts | Not confirmed by us |
Why it is clear only in hindsight. By the time 75% of coins have beaten bitcoin for three months, much of the move has happened. Short seasons, averaging 17 days on that index, mean waiting for confirmation can mean arriving late. Small coins that rally hardest are also the ones most exposed to rug pulls and fraud, which drove much of the $9.3 billion in crypto losses reported to the FBI's IC3 in 2024.
Quick poll
Which signal would you trust most for altcoin season?
What each answer means
- The Altcoin Season Index above 75: Clear rule, but by definition it confirms after a 90-day run.
- ETH/BTC breaking higher: Simple and liquid, but ether is not every altcoin.
- Falling bitcoin dominance: Useful, but stablecoins and coin lists distort it.
- None, I size alts as if it may never come: Sensible risk control; seasons have been short.
Your answer is stored only in this browser (localStorage). UXS does not collect, count or publish votes, so no totals are shown.
Sizing for it. If you want altcoin exposure, decide the share in advance and rebalance, as discussed in how much of a portfolio should be crypto. Altcoins have fallen further than bitcoin in every major drawdown; see why crypto crashes so hard.
Decision helper
| If you see | Likely meaning |
|---|---|
| Alts up in dollars, ETH/BTC falling | Bitcoin-led rally, not altseason |
| Index above 75 for weeks | Altcoin season by that definition |
| Dominance falling in a crash | Flight to stablecoins, not altseason |
| One sector pumping | Rotation, not a broad season |
Related reading: what moves ETH against BTC and the dollar, whether Litecoin is still worth buying and Bitcoin's volatility compared with stocks.
Common mistakes
- Measuring altcoins in dollars instead of against bitcoin.
- Buying after the index hits 75 and assuming months more to run.
- Treating falling dominance in a crash as a buy signal.
- Concentrating in tiny coins because "season is coming".
FAQ
What is altcoin season?
A period when most large altcoins outperform bitcoin, commonly defined as 75% of the top 50 over 90 days.
Is it altcoin season now?
Not on November 10, 2026: the Altcoin Season Index read 33.
How long do altcoin seasons last?
On BlockchainCenter's index the average has been 17 days and the longest 117 days.
What ETH/BTC level signals altseason?
There is no fixed level; a sustained rise is the signal. It peaked near 0.088 in December 2021.
Does falling bitcoin dominance always mean altseason?
No. It can fall because stablecoins grow or because bitcoin drops faster in a sell-off.
Can altcoins rise without an altcoin season?
Yes. They can gain in dollars while still lagging bitcoin.
Sources
- BlockchainCenter: Altcoin Season Index
- FRED: Coinbase Ethereum (CBETHUSD)
- FRED: Coinbase Bitcoin (CBBTCUSD)
- FBI IC3: 2024 Internet Crime Report
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.