Does the Stock Market Do Better in US Presidential Election Years?

Every four years the same chart appears: stocks by year of the presidential term. It is a real pattern in the history books. Whether it is useful for your money is a different question.

What people on X are asking

In January 2024 one research account opened the year by asking what significance a presidential election year has for the S&P 500, sharing a chart of election-year performance since the 1950s. In March 2025 a quant account described the four-year presidential cycle, saying the first two years of a term tend to be weaker than the last two. And in October 2026, amid a sell-off, another user reminded followers that 2026 is a midterm year, historically among the weakest and most volatile. The numbers below test all three.

The fact-checked answer

The data. We used annual S&P 500 total returns, including dividends, from 1928 to 2025, from NYU Stern's widely used historical returns dataset, and grouped each year by its place in the presidential cycle.

S&P 500 total return by year of the presidential cycle, 1928–2025

Computed by UXS from the NYU Stern historical returns file (updated January 2026). Total returns include reinvested dividends; no fees or taxes. Tap a column header to sort.

Cycle year	Example years	Number of years	Average return	Median return	Share of years positive	Worst	Best
Election year	2016, 2020, 2024	25	11.9%	15.9%	84% (21)	−36.6% (2008)	+43.8% (1928)
Post-election	2017, 2021, 2025	25	10.6%	12.4%	60% (15)	−35.3%	+50.0%
Midterm	2018, 2022, 2026	24	7.1%	5.0%	58% (14)	−25.9%	+52.6%
Pre-election	2019, 2023	24	17.8%	22.5%	92% (22)	−43.8%	+46.7%

What it shows. Election years were good but ordinary: the 11.9% average is close to the roughly 11.8% average of all 98 years. The pre-election year is the strongest, and midterm years are the weakest, with barely more than half positive. The pattern is the same in the Nasdaq Composite since 1972: by our calculation from FRED data, pre-election years averaged about 30%, election years about 10%, post-election about 14% and midterm years about −0.5%, with 7 of 13 midterms positive.

Election years were not always up. The 1950s chart in the first post leaves out what came later. Since 1952, the S&P 500 lost money in two election years: 2000 (−9.0%) and 2008 (−36.6%). 2008 sat inside the recession that FRED's indicator marks from December 2007 to June 2009, and 2000 was the bursting of the dot-com bubble just before the 2001 recession. The economy mattered more than the ballot. See how far the Nasdaq fell in each recession.

Why the cycle might exist. Common explanations are that administrations push unpopular policies early in a term and try to support the economy before the next vote, and that uncertainty fades once the midterm result is known. None of these is proven, and the sample is small: about 24 observations per cycle year, with huge variation inside each group.

Midterm 2026. The Nasdaq Composite was up about 8.7% for 2026 through November 9, already above the historical midterm average. Midterm years have often had a weak middle and a stronger end; whether 2026 does is unknown.

Quick poll

Would you change your investing because it is an election year?

• Yes, I would buy more in pre-election years
• Yes, I would be more cautious in midterm years
• No, I keep my plan
• I would wait until after the vote

Save my answer

What each answer means

• Yes, I would buy more in pre-election years: The pattern is real on average, but 24 data points is a thin basis for a strategy.
• Yes, I would be more cautious in midterm years: Midterms were weakest, yet 58% were still positive.
• No, I keep my plan: What long-term data mostly support: time in the market matters more than the cycle.
• I would wait until after the vote: Waiting has a cost; markets often move before results are final.

Your answer is stored only in this browser (localStorage). UXS does not collect, count or publish votes, so no totals are shown.

How to use it. Treat the cycle as context, not a signal. Seasonal claims have similar problems; compare whether September is really the worst month and the Santa Claus rally. If an election makes you nervous, a dollar-cost averaging plan handles that better than timing.

Decision helper

Related reading: the average S&P 500 return over 10 years, what a bear market is and what happens to stocks when the Fed cuts rates.

Common mistakes

• Treating a pattern with 25 data points as a law.
• Ignoring recessions and bubbles, which explain the worst election years.
• Selling long-term holdings to avoid election uncertainty.
• Using price-only returns and missing dividends.

FAQ

Do stocks go up in election years?

In 21 of 25 election years since 1928, the S&P 500 had a positive total return.

Which year of the presidential cycle is best for stocks?

The pre-election year, with an average 17.8% total return since 1928.

Are midterm years bad for stocks?

They have been the weakest on average, 7.1%, but 14 of 24 were still positive.

Did stocks fall in any election year?

Yes. Since 1952, in 2000 and 2008, the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.

Does it matter which party wins?

This page does not test parties; the four-year cycle pattern is about timing within the term.

Is the presidential cycle a good trading strategy?

Not on its own. The sample is small and results vary widely within each cycle year.