What Is the Average Annual Return of the S&P 500 Over the Last 10 Years?
Direct answer
S&P 500: last 10 years
Over the last ten years the S&P 500 has returned about 13.0% a year compounded, measured on the price index alone: it rose from 2,163.26 on November 9, 2016 to 7,353.73 on November 5, 2026 (FRED), a 3.4-fold increase. Dividends come on top, so the total return was higher. The simple average of the nine full calendar years 2017–2025 was 14.4%, but individual years ranged from −19.4% (2022) to +28.9% (2019). The 10% figure often quoted is a long-run rule of thumb, not the last decade's result, and planning with any single number hides that sequence.
- Nov 9, 2016: 2,163.26 → Nov 5, 2026: 7,353.73 (FRED, price only)
- Compound annual price return: 13.0%
- $10,000 → about $34,000 before dividends and costs
- Average of calendar years 2017–2025: 14.4%
- Best year 2019 (+28.9%), worst 2022 (−19.4%)
"Assume 10% a year" is the most common line in investing posts. For the last decade the S&P 500 actually did better than that, but the path matters as much as the average.
What people on X are asking
In March 2025 a post on compounding said $50,000 in the S&P 500 at "an average annual return of 10%" could grow to about $1,146,798 in 50 years. In February 2026 a reply ran the numbers on $54 million at "9.5% average annual return with dividends reinvested": about $133.8 million after 10 years. And in May 2026 a list of growth funds ranked QQQ at "17.9% (Nasdaq 100)" over ten years. Here is what the data show.
What people in the thread said
- @onwards26 replied that with inflation, $1 million in 50 years would be worth only about $10,000 today. That overstates it a lot. At 3% average inflation, $1 million in 50 years is worth about $228,000 in today's money (1,000,000 ÷ 1.03^50); it would take inflation near 9.6% a year to shrink it to $10,000. Inflation still matters, which is why real returns are lower than the nominal figures here.
These are community comments, summarised in our words; the data and sources below come first.
The fact-checked answer
The ten-year number. FRED's daily S&P 500 series starts in November 2016, which gives exactly one ten-year window. The index closed at 2,163.26 on November 9, 2016 and 7,353.73 on November 5, 2026 (the latest close on FRED). That is 3.40 times the starting value, or 13.0% a year compounded. This is the price index only; dividends are not included, so the total return including reinvested dividends was higher.
Calendar years. The yearly returns were very uneven:
S&P 500 calendar-year price returns, 2017–2026
Computed by UXS from FRED SP500 year-end closes (price only, no dividends). Simple average of 2017–2025: 14.4%; compound (geometric) average: 13.2%. Tap a column header to sort.
| 2017 | +19.4% |
| 2018 | −6.2% |
| 2019 | +28.9% |
| 2020 | +16.3% |
| 2021 | +26.9% |
| 2022 | −19.4% |
| 2023 | +24.2% |
| 2024 | +23.3% |
| 2025 | +16.4% |
| 2026 to Nov 5 | +7.4% |
The simple average (14.4%) is higher than the compound rate (13.2% over the same nine years) because losses hurt more than equal-sized gains help. Always plan with compound returns.
UXS chart
S&P 500 since November 2016 (log scale)
S&P 500 (price index): latest
7,353.73
November 5, 2026
Highest in chart period
7,818.93
October 6, 2026
Lowest in chart period
2,131.52
November 7, 2016
Change over 1 year
+8.2%
vs November 5, 2025
Year by year: S&P 500 (price index)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data November 5, 2026).
| 2026* | 7,353.73 | +7.4% | 7,818.93 | 6,343.72 |
| 2025 | 6,845.50 | +16.4% | 6,932.05 | 4,982.77 |
| 2024 | 5,881.63 | +23.3% | 6,090.27 | 4,688.68 |
| 2023 | 4,769.83 | +24.2% | 4,783.35 | 3,808.10 |
| 2022 | 3,839.50 | -19.4% | 4,796.56 | 3,577.03 |
| 2021 | 4,766.18 | +26.9% | 4,793.06 | 3,700.65 |
| 2020 | 3,756.07 | +16.3% | 3,756.07 | 2,237.40 |
| 2019 | 3,230.78 | +28.9% | 3,240.02 | 2,447.89 |
| 2018 | 2,506.85 | -6.2% | 2,930.75 | 2,351.10 |
| 2017 | 2,673.61 | +19.4% | 2,690.16 | 2,257.83 |
| 2016 | 2,238.83 | – | 2,271.72 | 2,131.52 |
Checking the posts. The 9.5% maths is right: $54 million × 1.095¹⁰ ≈ $133.8 million and × 1.095²⁰ ≈ $331.6 million. The 10% example is not: $50,000 compounded at 10% for 50 years is about $5.87 million. The $1,146,798 figure matches a rate of about 6.5% a year. You can check any such claim with the SEC's Investor.gov compound interest calculator. The QQQ figure is plausible for the Nasdaq-100: on FRED, the Nasdaq-100 index rose 19.2% a year from November 2016 to November 2026, price only, a period that started just before the large-cap technology boom.
Why 10% keeps appearing. It is a rough long-run historical figure people use for planning, and much older data than FRED's ten-year window would be needed to test it. The point is not the exact number: a decade that starts at a market low will show more than one that starts at a peak.
What the average hides. An investor who started in early 2022 waited until early 2024 to recover the 2022 loss. Someone adding money every month or withdrawing for living costs gets a different result from the index average. Costs and taxes come off as well.
Free PDF
S&P 500 return planning sheet (PDF)
Use realistic ranges, not a single number.
Inputs
Scenarios (compound, after costs)
Checks
- Could I hold through a −20% year like 2022 without selling?
- Fund cost (expense ratio) deducted from each scenario
- Taxes on dividends and gains considered for my account type
- I use compound, not simple average, returns
Fill-in fields in the PDF: Starting amount and monthly contribution; Years invested; Cautious: 5% a year → value; Middle: 8% a year → value; Last decade's price return: 13% a year → value.
Download the PDF (44 KB, made by UXS, no sign-up)
For how this compares with active trading results, see whether a beginner should start with investing or trading.
Decision helper
| If you see… | Ask |
|---|---|
| "The S&P returns 10% a year" | Over which years, price or total return? |
| A 50-year projection | Is the compounding maths right? |
| A great 10-year number | Did it start near a low? |
| Average of yearly returns | What is the compound rate? |
For ways to invest the money, see lump sum vs dollar-cost averaging into the S&P 500 and index fund vs ETF; for the tech-heavy alternative, S&P 500 vs Nasdaq-100.
Common mistakes
- Using simple averages instead of compound returns.
- Forgetting that price-index returns exclude dividends.
- Projecting one decade's return 50 years forward.
- Ignoring fees and taxes.
FAQ
What is the S&P 500's 10-year average return?
About 13.0% a year compounded on the price index from November 2016 to November 2026, before dividends.
Does that include dividends?
No. FRED's S&P 500 series is the price index; total return was higher.
What was the worst year in the last decade?
2022, with a −19.4% price return.
What was the best year?
2019, at +28.9%.
Is 10% a year a safe assumption?
It is a rough long-run planning figure; using a range is more prudent.
How much did $10,000 become?
About $34,000 on price alone over the ten years.
Sources
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.