Why Did LME Nickel Prices More Than Double in a Day in March 2022?
Direct answer
The 2022 LME nickel squeeze
Nickel more than doubled because a squeeze on short positions hit a thin market at night with weak controls. The FCA says that between 4 and 8 March 2022 the LME's 3-month nickel contract saw extreme volatility, and in the early hours of 8 March it rose above $100,000 a tonne, more than double the 7 March close, with most of the rise in little over an hour. Staff on the overnight shift were not trained to escalate it and even disabled the price bands. The LME suspended nickel from 08:15 London time, cancelled all trades from midnight that day and stayed shut for 8 days. In March 2025 the FCA fined it £9.2 million.
- 8 Mar 2022: 3-month nickel above $100,000/t, more than double the 7 Mar close (FCA)
- Most of the rise came in little over an hour, in Asian hours
- LME suspended nickel for 8 days and cancelled all trades from 00:00 on 8 Mar
- FCA fined the LME £9.2m in March 2025 for inadequate controls
- Monthly average: $24,016 (Feb 2022) → $33,924 (Mar) → $15,436 (Oct 2026)
Most traders assume an exchange price is final once a trade is done. In March 2022 the world's main metals exchange showed that is not always true.
What people on X are asking
In March 2025 a post said the squeeze "increased the price x4 over just a few days, from around $27k/tonne to a peak of over $101k/tonne" before trades were cancelled. In April 2026 another listed it among famous "widow-maker" trades, noting the price "more than doubled in hours" and that even being right could be voided. And in July 2026 a third called it "one of the best margin calls in history". The second post matches the regulator's account. The first is partly right: the FCA says more than double the previous day's close, so the "x4" only works if you start from late-February prices.
What people in the thread said
- Under the widow-maker trades thread, @aperture538 quoted a line from CFTC-required risk disclosures: a spread position may not be less risky than a simple long or short position. That fits nickel: hedged and spread positions were also caught when prices doubled and the exchange cancelled trades.
These are community comments, summarised in our words; the data and sources below come first.
The fact-checked answer
The background. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the World Bank noted that Russia is the world's largest exporter of nickel, among other commodities. LME Notice 22/053 refers to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "the recent low-stock environment and high pricing volatility". The episode is widely described as a short squeeze: holders of large short positions faced margin calls as prices rose, and buying to close them pushed prices higher still.
What happened on 8 March. The FCA's March 2025 press release says:
- Between 4 and 8 March 2022 the price of the 3-month nickel contract "encountered extreme volatility".
- In the early hours of 8 March "its price rose to over $100,000, more than double the closing price on 7 March 2022, with most of the rise occurring in little over an hour".
- During Asian trading hours (1am–7am GMT) only relatively junior staff were on duty. They were trained to spot error trades or rogue algorithms, did not escalate, and "even disabl[ed] the price bands".
UXS decision diagram
How the nickel day unfolded
Text version of the diagram
- Did prices rise fast in thin overnight trading? If no: Normal volatility controls apply
- Did staff escalate to senior managers? If no: Price bands were disabled; the rise accelerated (FCA)
- Was the market still orderly? If no: LME suspended nickel trading from 08:15 London time
- Were the day's trades left in place? If no: LME cancelled all trades from 00:00 UK time on 8 March
- Otherwise: Market shut for 8 days; deliveries deferred; FCA fine of £9.2m in 2025
Diagram drawn by UXS. A simplified decision aid for education, not a recommendation.
The suspension and cancellation. Notice 22/053 says the LME decided to "cancel all trades executed on or after 00:00 UK time on 8 March 2022 in the inter-office market and on LMEselect" and to defer deliveries due on 9 March. The FCA says the market was suspended for 8 days.
The fine. In March 2025 the FCA fined the LME £9.2 million, its first enforcement action against a recognised investment exchange, for failing to ensure its systems and controls could handle severe market stress.
How the monthly data look. Averages smooth the spike away.
UXS chart
Nickel, World Bank monthly average price since 2005 ($ per tonne)
Nickel, $/tonne (LME, monthly average): latest
$15,436
October 1, 2026
Highest in chart period
$52,179
May 1, 2007
Lowest in chart period
$8,299
February 1, 2016
Change over 1 year
+2.3%
vs October 1, 2025
Year by year: Nickel, $/tonne (LME, monthly average)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data October 1, 2026).
| 2026* | $15,436 | +3.7% | $18,806 | $15,436 |
| 2025 | $14,884 | -3.6% | $16,066 | $14,671 |
| 2024 | $15,445 | -6.2% | $19,587 | $15,445 |
| 2023 | $16,461 | -43.1% | $28,195 | $16,461 |
| 2022 | $28,947 | +44.6% | $33,924 | $21,482 |
| 2021 | $20,016 | +19.0% | $20,016 | $16,407 |
| 2020 | $16,823 | +21.7% | $16,823 | $11,804 |
| 2019 | $13,829 | +27.6% | $17,657 | $11,523 |
| 2018 | $10,835 | -5.7% | $15,106 | $10,835 |
| 2017 | $11,495 | +4.8% | $11,972 | $8,932 |
| 2016 | $10,972 | +26.0% | $11,129 | $8,299 |
| 2015 | $8,708 | -45.4% | $14,849 | $8,708 |
The monthly average rose from $24,016 in February 2022 to $33,924 in March and $33,133 in April, then fell back. By October 2026 it was $15,436, well below the 2022 level.
What it means for traders.
- Exchanges can cancel trades. Some winning trades on 8 March were erased. Read your exchange's rulebook on disorderly markets.
- Squeezes feed on margin. Rising prices force short holders to post cash or buy back, which lifts prices more.
- Thin hours are risky. The worst move came overnight in London.
- Stops do not cap losses in gaps. Orders fill at the next available price, or not at all if the market is suspended.
Decision helper
| If you trade... | Lesson from nickel |
|---|---|
| Metals futures | Check price limits and exchange powers |
| Short commodity positions | Plan margin for extreme moves |
| CFDs on metals | Read how the provider's terms handle exchange events |
| Thin overnight sessions | Size down; spreads and gaps widen |
For the squeeze mechanics in stocks, see what a short squeeze is. For another historic futures shock, read how WTI crude went negative in April 2020; for how margin calls work, what a margin call in forex is.
Common mistakes
- Assuming an exchange can never undo trades.
- Using monthly averages to judge intraday risk.
- Shorting a thinly stocked market with no margin buffer.
FAQ
Why did nickel spike in March 2022?
A squeeze on short positions in a low-stock, war-hit market, made worse by weak overnight controls (FCA).
How high did nickel go?
Above $100,000 a tonne on the 3-month contract early on 8 March 2022.
Did the LME cancel trades?
Yes. All nickel trades from 00:00 UK time on 8 March 2022 were cancelled.
How long was nickel suspended?
The FCA says 8 days.
Was the LME fined?
Yes, £9.2 million by the FCA in March 2025.
Where is nickel now?
The World Bank monthly average was $15,436 a tonne in October 2026.
Sources
- FCA: First enforcement action and fine against a Recognised Investment Exchange (20 March 2025)
- LME Notice 22/053: Nickel suspension, delivery deferral and trade cancellation
- World Bank: Commodity prices surge due to the war in Ukraine
- World Bank: Commodity markets (Pink Sheet data)
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.