Did Commodities Beat Inflation in 2021 and 2022 Better Than Stocks?
Direct answer
Dec 2020 to Dec 2022: what beat inflation?
Yes, by a wide margin, but almost entirely because of energy. On World Bank monthly price indexes, commodities rose 67% from December 2020 to December 2022, while US consumer prices rose 14.0% and the S&P 500 returned about 5% including dividends, a loss after inflation. Energy prices more than doubled (+106%). Non-energy commodities rose only 16%, roughly matching inflation, and precious metals fell about 4%. Ten-year Treasuries lost about 21%. The lesson is that the commodity hedge worked in an energy-led inflation shock, not that every commodity protects against every kind of inflation.
- US CPI: +14.0% (FRED CPIAUCSL)
- World Bank commodity index: +67.1%
- Energy +105.5%, non-energy +16.0%, precious metals −3.8%
- S&P 500 with dividends: about +5.3% (NYU Stern data)
- 10-year Treasury bond: about −21.5%
When US inflation jumped in 2021 and 2022, the classic advice was to own "real assets" such as commodities. Looking back with full data, we can check how well that advice worked against stocks, bonds and gold over the same two years.
What people on X are asking
In December 2024 one investor asked whether commodities are still an inflation hedge as many were selling off, and whether 1970s winners are even relevant now. A personal finance account shared a column arguing that it is debatable whether commodities are a necessary part of a portfolio. And in December 2025 a crypto writer noted that during the 2021–2022 inflation spike, Bitcoin fell sharply while commodities and real estate rose. That last point is half right: Bitcoin rose in 2021 and crashed in 2022, while commodity prices did rise strongly over both years.
The fact-checked answer
The two-year scoreboard. We measured December 2020 to December 2022, the period when US consumer price inflation rose from 1.3% a year to a peak of 9.0% in June 2022 on FRED's seasonally adjusted CPI. Commodity figures are World Bank monthly average price indexes (2010 = 100). Stock, bond, gold and property returns are calendar-year figures from NYU Stern's historical returns dataset.
December 2020 to December 2022: returns vs inflation
Commodity indexes are World Bank monthly averages; agriculture rose 14.9% and metals 7.9% over the same period. Asset returns compound NYU Stern's 2021 and 2022 annual figures. Commodity indexes are spot prices, not returns of an investable fund. Tap a column header to sort.
| US CPI (all items) | 262.0 | 298.8 | +14.0% | – |
| World Bank commodity index (all) | 74.8 | 125.0 | +67.1% | Beat |
| Energy index | 63.7 | 130.9 | +105.5% | Beat |
| Non-energy index | 97.4 | 113.0 | +16.0% | Roughly matched |
| Precious metals index | 143.6 | 138.1 | −3.8% | Lost |
| S&P 500 with dividends | – | – | +5.3% (28.5% then −18.0%) | Lost |
| 10-year Treasury bond | – | – | −21.5% (−4.4% then −17.8%) | Lost badly |
| US real estate (NYU Stern series) | – | – | +25.6% | Beat |
| 3-month T-bills | – | – | +2.1% | Lost |
Energy carried the result. Energy prices doubled because oil, natural gas and coal surged, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The total commodity index more than doubled from December 2020 to its June 2022 peak, then fell back by year-end. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and farm goods, peaked in April 2022 and gave back much of the gain. Gold, often called the inflation hedge, ended slightly lower as real interest rates rose.
Stocks and bonds both struggled. The S&P 500 returned 28.5% in 2021 then lost 18.0% in 2022, so two-year growth of about 5% was well below inflation. Bonds were worse: rising rates cut 10-year Treasury values by about a fifth. 2022 was one of the rare years when stocks and bonds both fell, which is why some investors added commodities to the mix.
UXS chart
Commodity prices vs US consumer prices, rebased to 100 in December 2020
World Bank commodity index: latest
+199.47
October 1, 2026
Energy index: latest
+250.55
October 1, 2026
Non-energy index: latest
+131.62
October 1, 2026
Year by year: World Bank commodity index
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data October 1, 2026).
| 2026* | +199.47 | +73.40 pts | +199.47 | +135.43 | +250.55 | +131.62 |
| 2025 | +126.07 | -11.90 pts | +144.52 | +125.94 | +130.14 | +120.53 |
| 2024 | +137.97 | +1.20 pts | +149.20 | +134.89 | +151.49 | +120.12 |
| 2023 | +136.76 | -30.35 pts | +157.62 | +132.75 | +156.36 | +110.68 |
| 2022 | +167.11 | +14.57 pts | +211.23 | +162.83 | +205.49 | +116.02 |
| 2021 | +152.54 | +52.54 pts | +162.17 | +107.49 | +176.45 | +120.74 |
| 2020 | +100.00 | – | +100.00 | +100.00 | +100.00 | +100.00 |
The caveats. A spot price index is not something you can buy directly. Commodity funds use futures, which earn interest on cash collateral but can gain or lose from rolling contracts, as our page on why an oil ETF can lose money even when oil is flat explains. Two years is also a short window. On the same World Bank and CPI data, commodity prices have beaten US inflation by only about 0.8% a year since 1960, far less than long-run stock returns.
What it means. Commodities, and energy in particular, hedged a supply-shock inflation that came with soaring fuel prices. They are less reliable when inflation comes from wages or services, and they can fall hard when growth slows. Check whether today's moves look like that kind of shock on our commodity supercycle page.
Decision helper
| If inflation is driven by | Historically helpful |
|---|---|
| Energy and supply shocks | Energy and broad commodities |
| Strong demand and wages | Stocks with pricing power, short-term bills |
| Currency weakness | Real assets and gold, with big swings |
| Falling growth after a spike | Commodities often fall |
Related reading: how much gold should I own, what moves oil prices and does higher inflation make a currency weaker or stronger.
Common mistakes
- Treating all commodities as one inflation hedge.
- Assuming gold always rises with inflation.
- Comparing spot price indexes with fund returns.
- Judging a hedge on a single two-year window.
FAQ
Did commodities beat inflation in 2021 and 2022?
Yes. The World Bank commodity index rose 67% vs a 14% rise in US CPI.
Did stocks beat inflation in 2021 and 2022?
No. The S&P 500 returned about 5% with dividends, below 14% inflation.
Did gold beat inflation in 2021 and 2022?
No. World Bank precious metals prices fell about 4% over the two years.
Why did energy rise so much?
Oil, gas and coal surged, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Are commodity funds the same as the index?
No. Funds use futures, so returns include roll and collateral effects.
What did bonds do?
Ten-year Treasuries lost about 21% as interest rates rose.
Sources
- World Bank: Commodity markets (Pink Sheet)
- FRED: Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPIAUCSL)
- NYU Stern: Historical returns on stocks, bonds and bills, 1928–2025
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.