What moves gold and metals prices: investment vs industrial demand
Our summary
CME Group looks at metals from a fundamental analyst's point of view.
- Two kinds of demand: investment demand and industrial (manufacturing) demand. Gold has both: it is held as an investment and used in jewelry and electronics. Copper has very little investment demand but heavy industrial demand, so analysts watch construction activity instead.
- Growth and inflation: in a fast-growing economy with rising inflation, gold investment demand may rise as an inflation hedge, and industrial demand may rise too.
- Mixed signals: in a contraction, investment demand for gold may rise as stocks weaken, while industrial demand falls. Analysts have to weigh both.
- Supply is different for metals: metals are not used up, so supply comes from existing stockpiles and recycling as well as new mining, which reduces dependence on new production.
Our take: this framework explains why silver, with more industrial use, often behaves differently from gold. See our gold and gold/silver ratio chart.