Fed Funds Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield: 25-Year Chart and Data
On November 6, 2026 the effective federal funds rate was 3.88% and the 10-year Treasury yield 4.86%, so long-term rates sat about one percentage point above the Fed's policy rate.
Key figures
Fed funds rate vs 10-year Treasury yield at a glance
Effective fed funds rate
3.88%
November 6, 2026
10-year Treasury yield
4.86%
November 6, 2026
10-year minus fed funds
+0.98 pts
positive = upward-sloping
10-year yield, 1 year ago
4.11%
November 6, 2025
Monthly table, last 36 months
Tap a column header to sort. Values are the last available observation in each month.
| 2026-11 | 3.88% | 4.86% |
| 2026-10 | 3.88% | 4.94% |
| 2026-09 | 3.88% | 5.29% |
| 2026-08 | 3.63% | 4.75% |
| 2026-07 | 3.63% | 4.75% |
| 2026-06 | 3.63% | 4.44% |
| 2026-05 | 3.62% | 4.45% |
| 2026-04 | 3.64% | 4.40% |
| 2026-03 | 3.64% | 4.30% |
| 2026-02 | 3.64% | 3.97% |
| 2026-01 | 3.64% | 4.26% |
| 2025-12 | 3.64% | 4.18% |
| 2025-11 | 3.89% | 4.02% |
| 2025-10 | 3.86% | 4.11% |
| 2025-09 | 4.09% | 4.16% |
| 2025-08 | 4.33% | 4.23% |
| 2025-07 | 4.33% | 4.37% |
| 2025-06 | 4.33% | 4.24% |
| 2025-05 | 4.33% | 4.41% |
| 2025-04 | 4.33% | 4.17% |
| 2025-03 | 4.33% | 4.23% |
| 2025-02 | 4.33% | 4.24% |
| 2025-01 | 4.33% | 4.58% |
| 2024-12 | 4.33% | 4.58% |
| 2024-11 | 4.58% | 4.18% |
| 2024-10 | 4.83% | 4.28% |
| 2024-09 | 4.83% | 3.81% |
| 2024-08 | 5.33% | 3.91% |
| 2024-07 | 5.33% | 4.09% |
| 2024-06 | 5.33% | 4.36% |
| 2024-05 | 5.33% | 4.51% |
| 2024-04 | 5.33% | 4.69% |
| 2024-03 | 5.33% | 4.20% |
| 2024-02 | 5.33% | 4.25% |
| 2024-01 | 5.33% | 3.99% |
| 2023-12 | 5.33% | 3.88% |
What the two lines are
The effective federal funds rate is the average rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets a target range for it, which is the main tool of US monetary policy. On October 28, 2026 the FOMC kept that range at 3.75% to 4.00%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is set by the bond market. It reflects expectations for future short-term rates over ten years, expected inflation, and a term premium for holding a long bond.
Why the gap matters to traders
- Curve shape. When the 10-year yields more than the overnight rate, the curve is upward-sloping, the usual state. When it yields less, the curve is "inverted", which has often come before US recessions, though not on a fixed timetable.
- Stock valuations. Higher long-term yields raise the return investors can get without stock-market risk, which can pressure valuations. See What happens to stocks when the Fed cuts rates?.
- Currencies. Rate differences between countries are a key driver of exchange rates. Compare with our EUR/USD and dollar index chart.
Why the 10-year can rise when the Fed cuts
The Fed controls the overnight rate directly, not long-term yields. If markets expect higher inflation or more government borrowing, long yields can rise even while the Fed is cutting. That is why the two lines in the chart do not always move together.
FAQ
Who sets the 10-year Treasury yield?
The market, through buying and selling Treasury notes. The Fed influences it indirectly.
What is the current fed funds target range?
After the October 28, 2026 meeting, 3.75% to 4.00%. Check the Fed's FOMC calendar page for later decisions.
Is the effective rate the same as the target?
It is the actual volume-weighted average rate and normally trades inside the target range.
Where does the data come from?
The New York Fed publishes the effective rate and the US Treasury publishes yields; we use the series as compiled by FRED.
How to cite this page
UXS, “Fed Funds Rate vs 10-Year Treasury Yield: 25-Year Chart and Data,” https://uxs.nz/statistics/fed-funds-rate-vs-10-year-treasury-yield/, data retrieved November 10, 2026. Underlying data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Sources
- FRED: Federal funds effective rate (DFF)
- FRED: 10-year Treasury constant maturity (DGS10)
- Federal Reserve: Monetary policy explained
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar and statements
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.