What Does the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Measure, and How Do You Read It?
Direct answer
STLFSI4 in brief
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) measures how stressed US financial markets are, using 18 weekly data series: seven interest rates, six yield spreads and five other indicators. It is built so that its average since late 1993 is zero, so zero means normal conditions, negative readings mean below-average stress and positive readings above-average stress. The highest reading was 9.68 on October 10, 2008; in March 2020 it reached 5.64, and during the March 2023 bank failures 1.13. On October 30, 2026 it was −0.52, below average stress. It describes conditions now; it does not forecast the next crisis.
- 18 weekly series: 7 interest rates, 6 yield spreads, 5 others (FRED notes)
- Average since 1993 = 0
- above 0 = above-average stress
- Peaks: 9.68 (Oct 2008), 5.64 (Mar 2020), 1.13 (Mar 2023)
- Latest: −0.52 (Oct 30, 2026)
- 2026 range −0.95 to −0.18
- Above zero on 35% of weeks since 1993, 19% since 2016
Most market gauges measure one thing: volatility, spreads or yields. The St. Louis Fed's stress index blends many of them into a single weekly number with a simple reading rule.
What people on X are asking
In January 2026 a market data account noted that "The Fed Financial Stress Index is declining" and that the relief was more visible in the S&P 500 than in Bitcoin. An August 2024 post described it as "A Market Thermometer" that compares current conditions with historical averages, and a macro account regularly posts the "St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (Weekly, Index)" chart. Here is what it contains and how to read it.
The fact-checked answer
What is in it. FRED's notes say the STLFSI4 is "constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators", each capturing some aspect of financial stress. When stress rises, these series tend to move together, and the index captures that common movement. Version 4 replaced a backward-looking SOFR average with the 90-day forward-looking SOFR in two of its spreads. It is published weekly (data ending Friday).
How to read it. "The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero." So zero means normal market conditions, values below zero suggest below-average stress, and values above zero above-average stress. In FRED's history, readings above 5 have only occurred in late 2008 and March 2020.
UXS chart
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4)
STLFSI4 (weekly): latest
-0.52
October 30, 2026
Highest in chart period
+9.68
October 10, 2008
Lowest in chart period
-1.13
January 26, 2007
Change over 1 year
-0.02 pts
vs October 24, 2025
Year by year: STLFSI4 (weekly)
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data October 30, 2026).
| 2026* | -0.52 | +0.05 pts | -0.18 | -0.95 |
| 2025 | -0.57 | +0.05 pts | +0.58 | -0.96 |
| 2024 | -0.62 | -0.21 pts | -0.15 | -0.95 |
| 2023 | -0.41 | -0.37 pts | +1.13 | -0.76 |
| 2022 | -0.04 | +0.72 pts | +0.63 | -0.70 |
| 2021 | -0.76 | -0.36 pts | -0.15 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | -0.40 | -0.23 pts | +5.64 | -0.56 |
| 2019 | -0.17 | -0.85 pts | +0.38 | -0.77 |
| 2018 | +0.68 | +1.18 pts | +0.68 | -0.81 |
| 2017 | -0.50 | -0.46 pts | -0.08 | -0.82 |
| 2016 | -0.04 | -0.44 pts | +1.28 | -0.24 |
| 2015 | +0.40 | +0.87 pts | +0.71 | -0.39 |
Crisis readings. From FRED's weekly data:
- October 10, 2008: 9.68, the all-time high, during the global financial crisis.
- October 7, 2011: 1.40, during the euro-area debt crisis.
- March 20, 2020: 5.64, in the pandemic market crash.
- July 1, 2022: 0.63, the 2022 peak as rates rose quickly.
- March 17, 2023: 1.13, the week after the failure of several US regional banks.
- April 11, 2025: 0.58, the 2025 peak.
Now. The latest value is −0.52 for the week of October 30, 2026. In 2026 it has ranged from −0.95 (June 19) to −0.18 (March 27): below average throughout the year. Since 1993 the index has been above zero in 35% of weeks; since 2016, only 19%.
What it is not. It is a thermometer, not a forecast. It rose sharply in 2008 and 2020 as the stress happened, not months before. Low stress readings can coexist with high valuations or building risks that are not in its 18 inputs. Use it to judge whether markets are calm or strained right now, and compare it with related gauges such as the Chicago Fed's NFCI or the VIX.
UXS decision diagram
What does this week's STLFSI4 reading mean for my risk?
Text version of the diagram
- Is the index above 0 (above-average stress)? If no: Normal or calm conditions; other risks still apply
- Is it above 1 and rising for several weeks? If no: Mild stress; watch credit spreads and the VIX
- Is it above 2? If no: Significant stress; reduce leverage and position size
- Otherwise: Crisis-level stress (2008: 9.68, 2020: 5.64): expect gaps, wide spreads and correlated selling
Diagram drawn by UXS. A simplified decision aid for education, not a recommendation.
Decision helper
| STLFSI4 | Typical conditions |
|---|---|
| Below −0.5 | Very calm: tight spreads, low volatility |
| −0.5 to 0 | Below-average stress |
| 0 to 1 | Above-average stress |
| Above 1 | Clear stress (2011, 2023) |
| Above 5 | Crisis (2008, 2020) |
For related gauges, see what the VIX is, what widening high-yield credit spreads say about stocks and does an inverted yield curve mean a recession.
Common mistakes
- Treating a low reading as an "all clear" for future returns.
- Comparing values across versions of the index without checking.
- Expecting it to lead crashes rather than measure them.
- Ignoring the scale: 0.6 and 6 are very different worlds.
FAQ
What does the STLFSI measure?
US financial market stress, from 18 weekly rate, spread and other series.
What does a reading of zero mean?
Normal conditions: zero is the average since late 1993.
What is the highest reading ever?
9.68 on October 10, 2008.
What is the current reading?
−0.52 for the week ending October 30, 2026.
How often is it updated?
Weekly; FRED publishes each new value a few days after the week ends.
Is it a recession predictor?
No. It measures current stress, not future growth.
Sources
- FRED: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4)
- FRED: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
- FRED: CBOE Volatility Index (VIXCLS)
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.