Why Are Coffee Prices So High, and Will Arabica Prices Come Down?
Direct answer
Coffee prices in numbers
Coffee prices are high because supply has fallen short of demand for several years. The World Bank says arabica reached record nominal highs of about $9 per kg in February–March 2025, driven by weather-related production shortfalls in Brazil, the lingering effects of the 2021–22 shortfall and steady demand growth. In World Bank monthly data, arabica averaged $8.47/kg in 2025 versus $2.88 in 2019 and was $7.40/kg in October 2026, still about 18% below the record. Retail prices follow with a lag, and roasting, transport, tariffs and store margins add to the bean cost.
- Arabica record: $9.05/kg monthly average (Feb 2025
- matched Nov 2025), about $4.10/lb
- October 2026: $7.40/kg, about 2.6 times the 2019 average of $2.88
- 2025 average $8.47/kg, up from $5.62 in 2024 and $4.54 in 2023
- World Bank cites weather in Brazil and a multi-year supply shortfall
- Retail prices lag the bean market by months
A cup of coffee is a small purchase, which is why price rises feel so personal. Behind it is a global commodity market for green (unroasted) beans, and that market went through one of its biggest rallies on record in 2024 and 2025.
What people on X are asking
In July 2025 one user asked why coffee prices are so high and whether tariffs on Brazil would push them higher. In September 2025 another asked simply why coffee is so expensive, and in October 2025 a reply about Canada asked why coffee prices are so high there now, pointing to poor weather in Brazil and Vietnam. The data and the World Bank's analysis back that up.
The fact-checked answer
UXS chart
Arabica coffee price ($ per kg, monthly average)
Arabica coffee: latest
$7.40
October 1, 2026
Highest in chart period
$9.05
February 1, 2025
Lowest in chart period
$0.78
July 1, 1969
Change over 1 year
-16.9%
vs October 1, 2025
Year by year: Arabica coffee
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data October 1, 2026).
| 2026* | $7.40 | -11.9% | $8.02 | $6.79 |
| 2025 | $8.40 | +11.0% | $9.05 | $7.18 |
| 2024 | $7.57 | +62.8% | $7.57 | $4.47 |
| 2023 | $4.65 | +0.4% | $5.06 | $4.05 |
| 2022 | $4.63 | -21.7% | $6.17 | $4.63 |
| 2021 | $5.91 | +69.8% | $5.91 | $3.54 |
| 2020 | $3.48 | +0.6% | $3.67 | $2.99 |
| 2019 | $3.46 | +23.6% | $3.46 | $2.66 |
| 2018 | $2.80 | -7.6% | $3.06 | $2.67 |
| 2017 | $3.03 | -15.1% | $3.72 | $3.03 |
| 2016 | $3.57 | +8.8% | $4.06 | $3.20 |
| 2015 | $3.28 | -24.4% | $4.19 | $3.22 |
The rally in numbers. Arabica averaged $2.88/kg in 2019 and $3.32 in 2020. It climbed to $5.63 in 2022, eased to $4.54 in 2023, then jumped to $5.62 in 2024 and $8.47 in 2025. The monthly average hit a record $9.05/kg in February 2025 (about $4.10 per pound) and matched it in November 2025. The previous nominal high in this series, $7.00 in 1977, had stood for almost half a century. In October 2026 the price was $7.40/kg: lower than the record, but still about 2.6 times the 2019 average.
Arabica coffee, yearly averages ($ per kg)
Computed by UXS from the World Bank Pink Sheet. Nominal prices, not adjusted for inflation; in real terms the 1977 peak was higher. Tap a column header to sort.
| 1977 | 5.17 | 7.00 | 3.77 |
| 1994 | 3.31 | 4.89 | 1.74 |
| 2011 | 5.98 | 6.62 | 5.22 |
| 2019 | 2.88 | 3.46 | 2.66 |
| 2021 | 4.51 | 5.91 | 3.54 |
| 2022 | 5.63 | 6.17 | 4.63 |
| 2023 | 4.54 | 5.06 | 4.05 |
| 2024 | 5.62 | 7.57 | 4.47 |
| 2025 | 8.47 | 9.05 | 7.18 |
| 2026 (to Oct) | 7.41 | 8.02 | 6.79 |
Why: supply. The World Bank's analysis says beverage prices surged mainly because of weather-related production shortfalls, and that the lingering effects of the 2021–22 production shortfall, together with steady demand growth, kept pushing prices higher. Global production was about 170 million bags in 2023–24 and expected at about 173 million in 2024–25, still below 2020–21 levels. Brazil is the largest arabica producer, so low rainfall and high temperatures there matter for the world price. The World Bank also flagged weather as an ongoing risk to Brazil's 2025–26 harvest.
Why: demand. Coffee demand changes slowly and steadily, so a shortfall in supply is not met by less drinking. With stocks drawn down, prices have to rise until buyers ration or supply recovers.
Why your cup costs more than the bean. Green beans are only part of the retail price. Roasting, packaging, shipping, labour, rent and margins all add to it. Tariffs on imports, which the July 2025 question asked about, raise costs in the importing country but do not set the world benchmark price. Retail prices usually react months after the futures market, which is why shelf prices stayed high in 2026 even after arabica came off its peak.
Is it the same as cocoa? Cocoa had its own weather-driven spike; see why cocoa is so expensive. Both are tropical crops grown in a few regions, which makes them prone to sharp moves. For how futures contracts are sized, see gold futures vs micro gold futures.
Will coffee get cheaper? Prices fell about 18% from the record by October 2026 as supply improved, but the path depends on Brazilian and Colombian harvests and weather. History shows coffee rallies have reversed before (1977, 1994, 2011), but not on a schedule.
Quick poll
What do you think will matter most for coffee prices in 2027?
What each answer means
- Weather in Brazil: The World Bank has repeatedly flagged Brazilian weather as the key supply risk.
- Demand falling because of high prices: Demand tends to change slowly, so this is usually a smaller effect.
- Tariffs and trade policy: These change local retail prices more than the global bean price.
- Recovery in other producers like Colombia: The World Bank expected Colombian output gains to help ease prices.
Your answer is stored only in this browser (localStorage). UXS does not collect, count or publish votes, so no totals are shown.
Supply shocks hit grains too; see why wheat spiked in 2022 and what moves it now.
Brazil dominates another soft commodity too; see what moves raw sugar prices, from Brazil to India and ethanol.
Decision helper
| If you see… | It usually means |
|---|---|
| Futures falling, shelf prices high | Retail lag; prices may ease later |
| Drought news from Brazil | Upward pressure on arabica |
| Stocks rebuilding | Easing pressure |
| Strong dollar | Can weigh on commodity prices priced in dollars |
Common mistakes
- Comparing nominal prices across decades without inflation.
- Expecting café prices to drop the moment futures fall.
- Confusing arabica with robusta, which trades at a lower price.
- Blaming a single factor such as tariffs for a global move.
FAQ
Why are coffee prices so high?
Weather-related supply shortfalls in Brazil and a multi-year deficit, per the World Bank.
What was the record coffee price?
Arabica averaged a record $9.05/kg in February 2025 in World Bank monthly data.
What is the coffee price now?
$7.40/kg for arabica in October 2026, about 18% below the record.
Are coffee prices coming down?
They eased from the peak, but in October 2026 were still about 2.6 times the 2019 average.
Do tariffs raise coffee prices?
They raise costs in the importing country, not the world benchmark price.
Why is my coffee still expensive if futures fell?
Retail prices lag bean prices by months.
Sources
- World Bank blog: Beverage prices soften but risks are brewing
- World Bank: Commodity markets (Pink Sheet)
- International Coffee Organization
- CFTC: Futures market basics
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.