What Does the Copper-to-Gold Ratio Really Say About 10-Year Bond Yields?
Direct answer
Copper/gold ratio vs yields
The copper-to-gold ratio compares an industrial metal tied to growth with a haven metal, so a rising ratio is read as stronger growth and higher yields. The link has been loose recently. On our calculation from World Bank monthly prices and the FRED 10-year Treasury yield, the correlation of the two levels was +0.42 since 2000 but −0.18 since 2010 and −0.37 since 2020. In October 2026 the ratio (copper $ per tonne ÷ gold $ per ounce) was about 3.5, up from a low of 2.58 in February 2026 but far below the 8–9 of the mid-2000s, while the 10-year yield was 4.94%. A CFA Institute blog notes the dollar and foreign demand for Treasuries can break the relationship.
- Ratio = copper $/tonne ÷ gold $/oz (World Bank monthly averages)
- Correlation with 10y yield: +0.42 since 2000, −0.18 since 2010, −0.37 since 2020
- Jan 2006: ratio 8.61, 10y 4.53%
- Oct 2026: ratio 3.53, 10y 4.94%
- Gold's record run pushed the ratio down despite record copper
- A rough growth gauge, not a yield forecast
The copper-to-gold ratio is one of the most-shared macro charts on X: one line for metals, one for bond yields, moving together for years. Lately the lines have parted, and both sides claim the other will catch up.
What people on X are asking
In March 2025 one account summed up the usual reading: "Higher copper to gold ratio = higher global growth". In April 2025 a fund manager posted that "The #copper/#gold ratio suggests that #yields should be substantially lower." And in August 2025 another argued the ratio "has tracked 10Y yields for decades" but now falls while yields stay high, calling the divergence "unsustainable". We checked how close the tracking really is.
What people in the thread said
- @GemDiCom framed the ratio as the real economy against safe havens and said a divergence means growth is overstated or bonds have not caught up. @FenrirFunds went further, saying yields should be about 1% lower. Checking: the 10-year yield was 4.17% at the end of April 2025 and 4.94% at the end of October 2026, so bonds did not catch up as suggested.
These are community comments, summarised in our words; the data and sources below come first.
The fact-checked answer
The idea. Copper demand rises and falls with construction, manufacturing and power grids. Gold is bought as a haven and a store of value. When growth expectations improve, copper tends to outperform gold, and bond yields tend to rise with growth and inflation expectations. A 2023 CFA Institute blog says institutional managers use the ratio as one of the 10-year Treasury yield's leading indicators.
Our chart. We divided the World Bank monthly average copper price ($ per tonne) by the gold price ($ per troy ounce) and plotted it with the 10-year Treasury yield from FRED.
UXS chart
Copper-to-gold ratio vs the 10-year Treasury yield since 2000
Copper ($/t) ÷ gold ($/oz), World Bank monthly: latest
+3.53
October 1, 2026
10-year Treasury yield, % (FRED, month-end): latest
+4.86
November 6, 2026
Year by year: Copper ($/t) ÷ gold ($/oz), World Bank monthly
Computed by UXS from the same data as the chart. Tap a column header to sort. * = year to date (latest data October 1, 2026).
| 2026* | +3.53 | +0.80 pts | +3.53 | +2.58 | +4.86 |
| 2025 | +2.73 | -0.63 pts | +3.32 | +2.65 | +4.18 |
| 2024 | +3.37 | -0.78 pts | +4.31 | +3.37 | +4.58 |
| 2023 | +4.15 | -0.51 pts | +4.82 | +4.12 | +3.88 |
| 2022 | +4.66 | -0.68 pts | +5.39 | +4.35 | +3.88 |
| 2021 | +5.34 | +1.15 pts | +5.53 | +4.27 | +1.52 |
| 2020 | +4.18 | +0.07 pts | +4.18 | +3.01 | +0.93 |
| 2019 | +4.11 | -0.75 pts | +5.01 | +3.81 | +1.92 |
| 2018 | +4.86 | -0.55 pts | +5.43 | +4.86 | +2.69 |
| 2017 | +5.41 | +0.51 pts | +5.41 | +4.49 | +2.40 |
| 2016 | +4.89 | +0.58 pts | +4.89 | +3.55 | +2.45 |
| 2015 | +4.31 | -1.06 pts | +5.25 | +4.31 | +2.27 |
| 2014 | +5.37 | -0.54 pts | +5.86 | +4.98 | +2.17 |
| 2013 | +5.90 | +1.18 pts | +5.90 | +4.80 | +3.04 |
How closely they move. We calculated the correlation of the two monthly levels over different windows:
Copper/gold ratio and the 10-year yield, selected months and correlations
Ratio from World Bank monthly average prices; yield from FRED DGS10. Correlations of monthly levels, our calculation. A negative correlation means they have tended to move in opposite directions. Tap a column header to sort.
| Jan 2006 | 8.61 | 4.53% |
| Feb 2011 | 7.18 | 3.42% |
| Mar 2020 | 3.26 | 0.70% |
| May 2021 | 5.49 | 1.58% |
| Jan 2022 | 5.39 | 1.79% |
| Jan 2024 | 4.10 | 3.99% |
| Jan 2025 | 3.32 | 4.58% |
| Feb 2026 (series low) | 2.58 | 3.97% |
| Oct 2026 | 3.53 | 4.94% |
| Correlation since 2000 | +0.42 | |
| Since 2010 | −0.18 | |
| Since 2020 | −0.37 | |
| Since 2023 | −0.30 |
The relationship worked in the big moves of the 2000s and in 2020–21: both collapsed in March 2020 and recovered together into 2021. Since 2022 it has broken. Yields rose to multi-year highs while the ratio fell below its March 2020 level, to a low of 2.58 in February 2026, before recovering to 3.53 in October.
Why it broke. The ratio fell mostly because gold rose so far. World Bank data show copper at a record monthly average of $14,508 a tonne in October 2026, yet gold at $4,105 an ounce (after $5,020 in February) kept the ratio low by historical standards. Gold's rally has been tied to central-bank buying and haven demand rather than to the growth outlook. Meanwhile, yields reflect inflation, Fed policy and the supply of Treasury debt, not just growth. The CFA Institute blog warns that the dollar is a shared input in both metals and that shifts in foreign demand for Treasuries "could erode their utility as indicators".
So what does it say? The ratio is a reasonable gauge of how markets price industrial demand against fear. It is not a fair-value model for the 10-year yield. Posts saying yields "should" fall to match the ratio have been waiting since 2022.
Decision helper
| Signal | Sensible reading |
|---|---|
| Ratio rising with copper | Growth optimism |
| Ratio falling because gold surges | Haven or reserve demand, not just weak growth |
| Ratio and yields diverging | Other forces (inflation, fiscal supply) dominate yields |
| Using it to trade bonds | Check inflation and Fed pricing first |
For the copper side, see what moves copper prices; for gold, why the gold price is going up; and for bond yields and stocks, how rising 10-year Treasury yields affect the stock market.
Common mistakes
- Treating the ratio as a yield forecast.
- Ignoring that gold, not copper, has driven the ratio lately.
- Comparing ratios built from different price units.
- Cherry-picking a window where the lines match.
FAQ
What is the copper-to-gold ratio?
The copper price divided by the gold price, used as a gauge of growth against safety.
Does the copper-to-gold ratio predict bond yields?
Loosely at best. Since 2020 our calculated correlation is negative (−0.37).
Why is the copper-to-gold ratio so low?
Gold has risen even faster than copper's record prices.
What does a rising ratio mean?
Usually stronger growth expectations, as copper outperforms gold.
Which units are used?
Here copper in $ per tonne and gold in $ per troy ounce; other sources use $ per pound.
Is the ratio useful at all?
Yes, as one sentiment gauge among many, not as a fair-value model.
Sources
- World Bank: Commodity markets (Pink Sheet data)
- FRED: 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate (DGS10)
- CFA Institute: Is the copper-gold ratio a dependable leading indicator on rates?
Facts checked November 10, 2026. X posts are cited as evidence of the question, not of the answer.